Myanmar’s military leader, Min Aung Hlaing, made his first reported visit to China since the 2021 coup, arriving in Kunming for a summit of the Greater Mekong Subregion. This visit, seen as a lukewarm endorsement by China, could potentially backfire on the junta chief.
Despite the brutal crackdown on dissent and the coup in Myanmar, China has been a key ally to the military junta. Chinese state media even refrained from calling the coup a coup, instead referring to it as a “major cabinet reshuffle.” This unwavering support from China has been a crucial lifeline for the junta, especially as they face battlefield losses from rebel offensives.
The junta chief’s visit to China comes at a time when the military is reeling from a rebel offensive that captured a significant area near the border with China. Analysts believe that China’s support for the junta is driven by concerns about a disorderly collapse of power in Naypyidaw and a desire to protect its interests in Myanmar, including the Belt and Road initiative.
However, the relationship between Myanmar’s junta and China is not without its complexities. There is deep-seated mistrust on both sides, stemming from historical issues such as China’s support for insurgencies in Myanmar. The rebels’ capture of key territories last year, including the city of Lashio, has strained relations further, leading China to cut off essential services to rebel-held areas.
While China’s support for the junta may be increasing, there are concerns that the visit to China may not resolve the internal troubles of the junta chief. In fact, it could potentially lead to new problems as the general may be perceived as making significant concessions to Beijing in exchange for assistance. One key demand from China is likely to be the speeding up of promised elections, although critics doubt the elections will be free and fair given the ongoing conflicts and restrictions on political parties.
Overall, the visit of the junta chief to China underscores the complex and delicate relationship between the two countries. While China’s support is crucial for the survival of the military regime in Myanmar, it also highlights the challenges and tensions that exist within this alliance. As the junta chief seeks to strengthen ties with China, the implications of this visit for Myanmar’s future remain uncertain.
